Market Reports

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 74.60% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 7^th August 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 80.40% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 5.07 million bags of their forecast 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season.  This crop harvest that is underway will support exports to consumer markets for the July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee year.

Two days on from Monday’s 7.4 magnitude earthquake, Colombia continues to deal with the humanitarian consequences of the disaster, with loss of life, injuries, damage to infrastructure and landslides reported across affected areas. Rescue and relief efforts remain the immediate priority, particularly in the more remote and mountainous regions where access has been made difficult by damaged roads and connectivity. Against this backdrop, the impact on Colombia’s coffee supply chain is becoming clearer, with coffee movement in the main producing regions significantly restricted and export loadings through Buenaventura, the country’s principal coffee export port, remaining limited.  Port terminals at Buenaventura were temporarily suspended earlier this week while infrastructure inspections were undertaken, with the port subsequently announcing a gradual resumption of limited operations in areas deemed safe. It is estimated that around 60–70% of Colombia’s coffee exports move through Buenaventura, making the disruption significant, although exports through the Caribbean ports of Cartagena and Santa Marta continue.

Uganda, Africa’s leading robusta producer and the fourth largest robusta exporter to non-producing consumer markets, is projected to see coffee production levels increase in the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year. Public estimates suggest a total output of a potential 8 million bags. This comprises approximately 7 million bags of robusta and 1 million bags of arabica coffee. For the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, production is expected to reach marginally higher levels of around 8.40 million bags based on a larger robusta crop to come.

Exports from the current coffee year continue to reflect higher month on month figures, with the Ugandan Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Department of Coffee Development reports that the cumulative exports for the first eight months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 8.10% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 4.93 million bags.  The smaller fly crop is starting to slowly contribute to export availability, although volumes have to picked up as expected as yet and one may expect this to be reflected in export reports as when released in the weeks ahead. An increase in internal coffee speculation activity would appear to be influencing crop flow.

Ethiopia, Africa’s leading Arabica coffee producer, is independently forecast to produce 8.50 million bags for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, around 4.50% lower in production than the previous year. The median forecast for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year is that Ethiopia’s exclusively Arabica crop could reach 8.25 million bags. With limited carryover stocks following the record 2024/25 export season, domestic consumption is estimated at somewhere in the region of 3.50 to 4 million bags. Ethiopia’s principal export corridor runs via neighbouring Djibouti, and disruption to logistics along the Red Sea interrupt vessel schedules, container equipment, shipment routing and freight availability. One might comment that there continues to be the development and diversification of demand away from the traditional European and North American markets to Asia and the Middle East. China has now become Ethiopia’s third largest export destination, behind Saudi Arabia and Germany, while demand from other Asian and Middle Eastern markets also continues to grow, albeit from a low base.

Tanzania is expected to produce 1.45 million bags of coffee during the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year.  This figure made up of around 750,000 bags arabica coffee and 700,000 bags robusta coffee. The coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year has been forecast to increase by 10.34%, to total a crop that shall be 1.60 million bags.  This new crop to be made up from 850,000 bags of arabica coffee and 750,000 bags of robusta coffee. Furthermore, and with domestic consumption increasing from a low base, estimated at a modest 90,000 bags, coffee is exported to primary consumer countries in Europe, and Japan.

Coffee production in Kenya for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year shall likely reach a steady 850,000 bags.  Of this crop, the forecast is that Kenya will export marginally less than the previous year at a total of 800,000 bags of green coffee. Forecast for the coming 2026/27 year indicates coffee production in Kenya anticipated to be 11.76% higher than the current year, to total 950,000 bags.  Local consumption growing from a low base, the forecast is for Kenya to export a total of 900,000 bags of green coffee in the coming coffee year.

The pending implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation remains a challenge for a number of East African coffee producing origins. he requirements around traceability, geolocation and verification remain a talking point within predominantly smallholder supply chains and could influence the direction of physical coffee flows, particularly where exporters have the option of placing coffee into non EU markets.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,553 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 240,285 bags, with 72.67% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 174,608 and the remaining 27.33% being held in the USA at a total 65,677 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.68% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.89% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 64,623 bags and 22.88% from Peru at a total 51,971 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 4,530 bags pending grading with 85% from Brazil.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 169.14 Usc/Lb. This equates to 49.73% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following inflation readings in the US that matched expectations, bolstering bets that interest rates will remain unchanged at the September monetary policy meeting. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.349 Sterling, at 1.152 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.191 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note, whilst the New York market started the day trading firmer from the outset. Both markets registered a positive track in a firmer direction in the early morning session. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued in positive territory, making gains throughout the morning session, buoyed by underlying buying support and lack of selling pressure, whilst the London market set a range. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued on a modest softer path, dropping back from the earlier highs to trend through par and into negative territory.  The New York market dropped back from the day’s highs late in the session before finding renewed support before the close to settle on a firmer note with half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market recovered from the earlier lows to settle on a softer note at the close with some of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 32.50% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 69.05% of earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer albeit above the day’s lows and the New York market settling on a firmer note at the close with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact, with the speculative sector at the helm and six sessions before first notice day in the prompt month in New York might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: