Market Reports

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of August were 80,493 bags or 13.52% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 514,538 bags. The island nation’s cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first five months of the current April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year are reported to be 382,910 bags or 16.85% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,889,174 bags.

These new crop export figures reflect lower year on year during the first five seasonal months of the current coffee export year, as there has been a slight delay to export shipments due to weather conditions experienced during harvest. The figures for August are the largest for the 2026/27 coffee year thus far and indicate that exports are beginning to pick up pace, albeit lagging slightly behind the same time last year. The new Indonesia April 2026 to March 2027 coffee export year, is forecast to reach an overall 11.38 million bags, or 8.01% lower than the previous coffee year. The production figures for the 2026/27 coffee year are forecast to be made up of 10 million bags robusta coffee, down 9.05% from the previous year and 1.38 million bags arabica Coffee, up 0.75% from the previous year.

Meanwhile, the focus of the coffee terminal markets will be on the arrival of the spring rains in Brazil, reports are that rains are due to fall sporadically over the vast coffee growing areas in the days to come. This ahead of the next biennially bearing Brazil crop to come in 2027/28.  In this respect, early forecasts for Brazil coffee crop may soon be anticipated to start to filter into the markets.  The summer rainfall patterns will continue to be closely monitored through December, and beyond to set the next Brazil 2027/28 crop to come.  The longer-term U.S. Governments National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre weather forecasts meanwhile point towards a 75% potential for El Niño weather phenomenon to continue through early 2027, although the strength and timing of this weather phenomenon will contribute to determining any as yet impact that this could bring, historically El Niño weather brings less rainfall and higher temperatures to the south-eastern regions of Brazil.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered a decrease of 290 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 260,364 bags, with 79.78% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 207,719 bags and the remaining 20.22% being held in the USA at a total 52,645 bags. Of this, a total 66,657 or 25.60% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil semi-washed arabica, and a further 19.21% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 50,017 bags and 17.82% from Peru at a total 46,390 bags. The pending grading increased by 444 bags on the day, registering 12,646 bags pending grading.

The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported a decrease by 32,000 bags during the week leading up to the 30^th September 2026, to register a total of 864,000 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 131.85 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 45.74% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with data released earlier this week indicating that inflation was softer than expected in August, while the markets wait key US Jobs data due to be released later today which may assist in affirming expectation of interest rate trajectory. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Soybean and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.321 Sterling, at 1.126 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.227 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, while the New York market started the day yesterday trading on a modest near to unchanged softer note. The London market continued to trade around par, attracting selling pressure earlier to move lower, while the New York market was pressured lower throughout the remainder of the early morning session. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued with the market finding support near the day’s lows to recover and trend positive. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued a modest firmer path, gaining support to trend firmer for the remainder of the day’s session.  The New York market traded through par and into softer territory, to set a new low for the day. The New York market found support late in the day to recover from the day’s lows and settle on a modest softer note at the close, with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. While the London market settled on modest near to unchanged firmer note, back from the day’s high.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 18.75% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 33.11% of earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firmer note with some of the earlier gains of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a softer note at the close albeit back from the day’s lows, might see the markets set for a follow through steady open today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: