Market Reports

The last day in the month of September marks the end of the October to September coffee marketing year for tropical and equatorial coffee producer countries.  This, with the usual round of export statistics that are soon to be released to reflect production and export performance over the twelve-month cycle.  The washed arabica sector are unlikely to render any surprises however, and the futures markets are by nature, already looking to the next harvest cycle ahead, to kickstart the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual increases over the last number of weeks. The certified stocks were registered at 255,721 bags yesterday; although this marks a decrease of 316,033 bags or 55.27% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 571,754 bags on 29^th September 2025, these stock levels have increased by 38,075 bags or 17.49% over the last two weeks. In comparison, these certified washed arabica stocks have decreased by 197,185 bags or 43.53% since the beginning of 2026. The number of bags pending grading to the exchange registered at 19,433 yesterday. The washed arabica coffee origins that can deliver to the certified stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. These origins are deliverable to the exchange at varying price premiums or discounts and in view of the prevailing price structure in New York. The number of certified washed arabica coffee stocks may continue to see gradual increases in the weeks ahead, while the timing of new crop deliveries from most Central American producer regions which will begin to flow to consumer markets towards the beginning of 2027, will be carefully monitored.

The certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange registered at 880,000 bags yesterday; this marks a decrease of 196,000 bags or 18.21% from the same time last year when the certified washed robusta coffee stocks registered 1,076,000 bags on 29^th September 2025.  In comparison, these certified washed robusta stocks have increased by 178,333 bags or 25.41% since the beginning of 2026.

Ethiopia is once again facing rising geopolitical tensions, with renewed conflict between the federal government and forces linked to the Tigray region raising concerns over a possible return to broader conflict. The situation may potentially impact on internal transport routes and the movement of export commodities towards Djibouti, Ethiopia’s primary trade corridor. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation posing a risk to regional stability, trade and transport infrastructure.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered an increase of 2,518 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 255,721 bags, with 78.73% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 201,334 bags and the remaining 21.27% being held in the USA at a total 54,387 bags. Of this, a total 59,676 or 23.34% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil semi-washed arabica, and a further 20.38% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 52,113 bags and 18.14% from Peru at a total 46,390 bags. The pending grading increased by 1,684 bags on the day, registering 19,433 bags pending grading, with 91.41% pending grading from Brazil.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 134.77 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 46.56% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of key macroeconomic data due to be shared later today which may provide cues on interest rate direction, while the US Dollar was firmer on the day in a reaction to volatile energy prices. The New York Arabica Coffee, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.326 Sterling, at 1.135 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.203 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day trading to the north of par on a firmer note yesterday, while the New York market followed also opening the day trading near to unchanged from the close on Monday. After a softer open, the markets staged further losses during the early session, with underlying selling pressure. During the mid-morning session, a degree of buying support to the fore and the markets pulled back from the earlier lows. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued to trade in softer territory, while the New York market continued to trend firmer, buoyed by support in the market. The London market found support near to the lows of the day to recover most of the earlier losses and end the day on a softer note at the close. The New York market held firm for the remainder of the session, finding renewed support towards the close. The market hit a ceiling late in the day to limit the gains to see the New York market drop back and settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged negative note, with 3.57% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 15.05% of earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note albeit back from the day’s lows and the New York market settling on a firmer note, with only some of the earlier gains intact, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: