Market Reports

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have reported preliminary data as of Monday 28^th September, that for the month of September thus far, coffee exports have registered 3.59 million bags, with the daily average reported at 198,000 bags. This performance would see Brazil coffee exports for September potentially surpass the record exports of 4.05 million bags during the 2024/25 year.  Brazil has cumulatively registered exports of green coffee for the first two months of the 2026/27 coffee year, to be 21.20% higher, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous year, at a total of 6.50 million bags. This number is made up of 4.69 million bags of arabica coffee up 9.79% from the previous coffee year and 1.80 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase year on year of 66.46% versus the previous year.

Weather is becoming an increasingly important factor for coffee as attention shifts towards the October to September 2026/27 seasonal year across the key quality washed arabica producer bloc, Colombia, Central America, Mexico and largest robusta producer and exporter, Vietnam. The strengthening El Niño pattern a consideration into the end of 2026 and early 2027.

Mexico is currently facing a contrasting weather risk, with periods of heavy rainfall and flooding affecting parts of the country as Hurricane Polo reaches the north coast. Further tropical activity over the coming weeks will be closely monitored. In Colombia, conditions have become drier through August and September following a wetter period earlier in the year. While this has provided improved field conditions ahead of the main crop, the market will be watching whether the drier pattern persists as El Niño strengthens into 2027.

The northern hemisphere’s major coffee-importing consumer blocs, the USA, Canada, Europe, and Japan are heading into the traditional winter roasting season. These mature coffee-consuming markets are anticipated to register steady to flat consumption patterns, collectively accounting for somewhere in the region of 92 million bags of coffee consumption per annum. Consumer stock levels remain low, although there have been some new registrations into certified stocks in recent weeks. This while the European Union Deforestation Regulation EUDR will soon come into play, representing a structural shift in EU sourcing requirements. While the simplification measures announced by the EU earlier this year have reduced some of the pressure on the market, compliance obligations remain substantial, particularly regarding farm-level traceability and verification. As a result, exporters, traders, and EU buyers are expected to continue investing in compliant supply chains ahead of the revised deadlines at the end of this year, with increasing emphasis on transparency and deforestation-free sourcing as a condition for market access.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered a decrease of 1,101 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 253,203 bags, with 78.43% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 198,591 bags and the remaining 21.57% being held in the USA at a total 54,612 bags. Of this, a total 52,791 or 20.85% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil semi-washed arabica, and a further 21.19% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 53,663 bags and 18.91% from Peru at a total 47,890 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 21,117 bags pending grading, with 92.09% pending grading from Brazil.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 135.12 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 46.79% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, while a pullback in the US Dollar provided tempered the days direction as a weaker US Dollar is traditionally a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The leading in influence Oil markets was firmer on the day, while concerns regarding inflation continue to suggest rising interest rates to come. The Coffee and Oil markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.324 Sterling, at 1.136 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.223 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the south of par on a softer note. Both markets quickly reversed the trend to find support and trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory, as the geopolitical arena continues to influence commodities.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back marginally and settle on a firm note, near to the highs of the day’s trading range.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 72.58% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 78.68% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a comparatively good volume day, with the speculative sector at the helm, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: