I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

04 Sep 2020

The analysts Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost all of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested, with the Conilon harvest now completed and the Arabica Harvest almost completed. This based on the Safras & Mercado forecast for a new crop of 68 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 66 million bags of the new crop have been harvested The Conilon robusta areas completed, which Safras estimate to have come in at 20 million bags and the arabica areas still in harvest, with an estimated 46 million bags completed.

Dry and warm weather is forecast for the first half of September across the Brazil Coffee Belt, with areas North of Espirito Santo and areas South of Bahia are forecast to receive isolated rains towards the end of the month.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 66.06 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.35% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 17,582 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 1,192,429 bags, with 93.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,118,899 bags and the remaining 6.2% being held in the USA at a total of 73,530 bags. There is meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,564 bags.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a downward track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6530% lower; to see this index registered at 412.0442. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.327 to Sterling, at 1.185 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.291 Brazilian Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a close to par soft note, both markets continued on this softer path into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets attracted a small degree of support to see the markets trend positive, however this was short lived as both markets soon dropped back from the highs of the day to see the markets close on a soft note for the day.

The London market ended the day yesterday on a close to par modest negative note and with 28.57% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a likewise close to par modest soft note and with 4.65% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to indicate direction, albeit the New York market recovered from the lows of the day, one might think the markets are due for a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                        NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1526 – 4                                                                    SEP 131.60 + 0.10
NOV 1436 – 4                                                                  DEC 131.20 – 0.10
JAN 1446 – 2                                                                    MAR 131.65 – 0.15
MAR 1457 – 3                                                                  MAY 132.50 – 0.15
MAY 1469 – 4                                                                  JUL 133.30 – 0.15
JUL 1480 – 6                                                                    SEP 133.95 – 0.15
SEP 1493 – 5                                                                    DEC 134.70 – 0.10
NOV 1506 – 5                                                                  MAR 135.50 – 0.10