I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

28 Sep 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative decrease their net long position by 9.67% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 22nd. September: to register a new net long position of 32,094 Lots which is the equivalent of 9,098,507 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net long position by 0.97% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 22nd. September; to register a new long position of 16,678 Lots.  This net long position is the equivalent of 2,779,667 bags and has most likely been very marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 52.06 usc/Lb. This equates to 45.81% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,130 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 1,102,436 bags, with 93.70% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,033,323 bags and the remaining 6.30% being held in the USA at a total of  69,113 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 10,436 bags. 

It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, the Copper market remained unchanged on the day, while the Oil, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0126% higher; to see this index registered at 404.0115.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.278 Sterling, at 1.164 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.561 Brazilian Real.

The New York and London market started the day on Friday trading on a positive note, both markets continued to trade around par for most of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York market came under selling pressure to both markets trend softer for the early afternoon session before bouncing off the lows of the day and gaining a degree of momentum towards the close.

The London market ended the day with on a modest positive note with 33.33% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 79.37% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close might assist towards some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a follow through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.  

NOV   1358 + 6                                                                 DEC    113.65 + 2.50
JAN    1376 + 8                                                                 MAR   115.20 + 2.35
MAR   1389 + 9                                                                 MAY   116.60 + 2.30
MAY   1403 + 8                                                                 JUL    117.90 + 2.25
JUL     1417 + 8                                                                 SEP    118.95 + 2.30
SEP    1432 + 7                                                                 DEC    120.00 + 2.30
NOV   1447 + 6                                                               MAR   121.05 + 2.20
JAN    1463 + 5                                                                 MAY   121.85 + 2.05