I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

25 Nov 2020

The January 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 54.53 usc/Lb. This equates to 47.05% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange was seen to increase by 9,858 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,247,191 bags, with 93.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,166,491 bags and the remaining 6.5% being held in the USA at a total 80,700 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 2,365 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 44,145 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 6,000 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 23rd. November, to see these stocks registered at 2,224,667 bags, on the day.

It was a modest firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa market ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6940% higher; to see this index registered 437.0521.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.335 Sterling, at 1.896 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.374 Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on yesterday trading close to par on a modest softer note, both markets continued to oscillate around par for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the markets came under a large degree of selling pressure to see both the London and New York markets settle near to the lows of the day’s trade.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 83.33% of the earlier losses of the day intact. while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 82.14% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to indicate direction, and with both markets settling near to the lows of the day one might think the markets are possibly due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.   

JAN 1353 – 25                                                   MAR 115.90 – 1.15
MAR   1365 – 22                                                         MAY   117.85 – 1.10
MAY   1377 – 21                                                        JUL 119.50 – 1.05
JUL   1389 – 22                                                          SEP    120.90 – 1.05
SEP    1404 – 23                                                          DEC     122.40 – 1.00
NOV   1420 – 24                                                         MAR    123.80 – 1.05
JAN   1435 – 24                                                          MAY   124.60 – 1.05
MAR   1452 – 24                                                          JUL   125.35 – 1.10