The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 91,878 bags or 19.10% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 572,839 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 26.93% increase in exports when compared to the same month last year, to total 494,223 bags, whereas Arabica exports registered a decrease by 14.16% to a total 78,616 bags exported in March this year. The UCDA likewise report that the cumulative exports for the first six months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year are 289,067 bags or 11.24% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 2,861,703 bags.

The Brazil market is due for a public holiday today, as the country celebrates Tiradentes Day. The relatively slow internal market activity that has been registered over the past couple of weeks, coupled by the appreciating Brazil Real currency against the US Dollar, is unlikely to bring much in the way of increased selling activity within Brazil this week, perhaps with the exception of some degree of buying activity on the part of local domestic roasters. The new 2021/22 Conilon robusta crop has begun harvest, while the expansive arabica coffee growing areas continue to progress in mostly conducive weather, toward the new, lower biennial bearing arabica harvest ahead.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé, have come forth to review their earlier reported February 2021 green coffee exports to be 34.12% higher than the same month last year, to total 3.62 million bags, this number made up of 3.30 million bags of Arabica Coffee up 33.31% from the same month last year and 313,689 bags of Robusta Coffee up 43.30% from the same month last year. This, they foresee will be followed by an estimated 3.06 million bags of green coffee exported to consumer markets, in March 2021. Although these figures reported are likely to be reviewed in the coming weeks, the indication for cumulative green coffee exports from Brazil from this current record crop coffee production year, to be a significant 32.61 million bags for the first nine months of the July 2020 to June 2021 coffee year.

The July-to-July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday: to register this at 71.04 usc/Lb. This equates to 52.84% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This arbitrage may become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,510 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,898,555 bags, with 95.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,805,092 bags and the remaining 4.9% being held in the USA at a total 93,463 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number 15,645 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 38,765 bags.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a soft sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.392 Sterling, at 1.203 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.569 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a firmer note, both markets quickly started to gain a degree of buying support which saw the markets trend firmer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the markets would hit a ceiling limiting the gains for the day to see both the New York and the London market drop back from the highs of the day and set on a softer path for the afternoon session. Late in the day saw the markets rally and recover to a degree from the early afternoon losses. The New York market would settle near to the highs of the day on a firmer note, with the London market following suit in a more sedate manner.

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 68.42% of the earlier gains the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 82.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree confidence with the markets maintaining most of the early in the day gains to possibly set the markets for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT.                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JUL 1398 + 13                                               JUL 134.45 + 2.55
SEP 1414 + 12                                               SEP 136.35 + 2.55
NOV 1430 + 11                                             DEC 138.80 + 2.55
JAN 1444 + 11                                              MAR 140.80 + 2.55
MAR 1458 + 11                                            MAY 141.55 + 2.50
MAY 1475 + 12                                            JUL 141.95 + 2.45
JUL 1492 + 12                                              SEP 142.15 + 2.40
SEP 1508 + 11                                              DEC 142.50 + 2.40