The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net long position by 14.38% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. August: to register a net long position of 28,952 lots, which is the equivalent of 8,207,764 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall, marginally firmer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net long position by 10.15% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. August: to register a new net long position of 21,333 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,555,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall, marginally firmer trade that has since followed.

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of July were 156,418 bags or 28.77% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 700,035 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 41.27% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 660,458 bags, whereas Arabica exports registered a decrease by 47.99% to a total 39,577 bags exported in July this year. The UCDA likewise report that the cumulative exports for the first ten months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year are 874,379 bags or 20.17% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 5,209,085 bags.

The September-to-September contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday to register this at 99.83 usc/Lb. This equates to 54.63% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,059 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 2,161,046 bags, with 94.03% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 2,032,061 bags and the remaining 5.97% being held in the USA at a total 128,985 bags. Of this, a total 1,145,541 bags, or 53.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 39.28% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a larger in number 5,204 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 12,521 bags.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the US Dollar lost ground against a basket of other currencies. A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for many of the US Dollar based commodity markets when trading in other currencies, this spurred by a survey that illustrated U.S consumer price sentiment was low during the early August. The Sugar, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.385 Sterling, at 1.179 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.243 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest close to par softer note. The markets continued to oscillate around par before slipping back to trend on a softer path for the remainder of the morning session, the markets started to attract a brief degree of buying support late in the morning session to see the markets recover slightly and trade around par. The markets hesitantly traded south of par before coming under selling pressure during the early afternoon session, pressured by long liquidation selling to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The markets rebounded from the lows of the day to recover some of the earlier in the day losses, to see both the New York and London markets settle on a negative note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 75% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 71.03% of the losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to inspire to indicate direction, nor does this inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                             NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP 1828 – 21                                                         SEP 182.75 – 3.80
NOV 1836 – 18                                                       DEC 185.75 – 3.85
JAN 1832 – 19                                                        MAR 188.45 – 3.90
MAR 1829 – 18                                                      MAY 189.30 – 4.05
MAY 1827 – 16                                                      JUL 190.05 – 4.10
JUL 1824 – 16                                                        SEP 190.65 – 4.15
SEP 1823 – 16                                                         DEC 191.50 – 4.15
NOV 1829 – 16                                                      MAR 192.15 – 4.15