The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market raise their net long position within this market by 6.45% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 26th. July; to register a new net long position 19,675 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position marginally within the market by 0.38%, to register a net long position of 36,684 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector raise their net long position by 8.64% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 26th. July: to register a net long position of 14,693 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,165,400 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed trade that that has since followed.
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data that illustrates the country’s green coffee exports for the month of July were 2.72% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 2.45 million bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for July will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this figure more accurately.
The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of July were 251,769 bags or 38.06% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 409,668 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for first ten months of the October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 397,454 bags or 7.90% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,636,269 bags.
The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of July were 18.30% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 152,894 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 6.50% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 925,415 bags.
The September 2022 to September 2022 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 121.08 usc/Lb. This equates to 56.79% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage may be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for Robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 45 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 700,005 bags, with 91.99% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 643,932 bags and the remaining 8.01% being held in the USA at a total 56,073 Of this, a total 247,518 bags, or 35.36% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 52.49% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar losing further ground as investors await fresh economic data that could potentially influence the direction that the US Federal Reserve might take on monetary policy. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.226 Sterling, at 1.027 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.186 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note, the New York market continued on a softer path for the remainder of the morning session, pressured lower by some degree of selling under slim volumes of trade. The London market oscillated around par before taking a firmer stance into the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market rallied quickly to take a firmer stance, however the gains were soon capped, and the market dropped back to take a softer track into the afternoon session. The London market was also seen to drop back from the morning highs to trend softer and into negative territory. Late in the day saw the New York market under long liquidation pressure with limited trade volumes pushing the market lower to settle on a softer note at the close, while the London market recovered the late losses to settle near to unchanged from the previous close.
The London market ended the day on a near to unchanged positive note with 3.84% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 58.82% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through mixed but mostly softer close for the markets does little to inspire confidence, with the New York market settling lower for the day and the London market settling near to unchanged for the day, might see the markets set for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
SEP 2031 + 1 SEP 213.20 – 4.00
NOV 2028 Unch DEC 210.00 – 3.80
JAN 2005 + 4 MAR 205.50 – 3.45
MAR 1988 + 7 MAY 202.60 – 3.55
MAY 1984 + 7 JUL 200.70 – 3.55
JUL 1979 + 8 SEP 199.10 – 3.50
SEP 1976 + 8 DEC 197.50 – 3.55
NOV 1971 + 6 MAR 195.70 – 3.45
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