The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of July was 265,000 bags or 21.92% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 944,000 bags.   This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first ten months of the present October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 1,370,000 bags or 12.16% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 9,900,000 bags.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of July were 209,000 bags or 17.01% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,020,000 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of the present October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to be 393,000 bags or 3.70% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 10,217,000 bags.

The September 2022 to September 2022 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday to register this at 122.75 usc/Lb. This equates to 57.19% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage may be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for Robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,870 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 695,135 bags, with 91.93% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 639,062 bags and the remaining 8.07% being held in the USA at a total 56,073 Of this, a total 247,518 bags, or 35.61% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 52.16% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with investors taking a balanced approach after hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve may be an indication of further interest rates and tighter monetary policy decisions to come. The Sugar, New York Arabica Coffee, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.214 Sterling, at 1.015 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.279 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a softer note, both markets quickly reversed the trend to attract a degree of buying support early which saw the markets trend in a firmer direction for the remainder of the morning session, albeit under relatively light trade volumes. As the afternoon progressed the markets continued in an upward path before being capped and seen to drop back from these mid-morning highs. The markets were seen to be weighed by long liquidation pressure which saw the markets drop back from the highs to drop back towards par. The markets traded to the south of par before hitting a floor to limit the losses for the day, this saw both the New York and the London market recover these losses and rally late in the day to see the New York market settle on a firmer note at the close, while the London market settled near to unchanged for the day.

The London market ended the day on a near to unchanged negative note with 16.67% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 54.91% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed but overall firmer close for the markets, might inspire some degree of follow through momentum albeit that the markets dropped back from the highs of the day, to possibly set the markets for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP 2026 – 1                                              SEP 214.65 + 4.75
NOV 2023 + 3                                            DEC 211.25 + 4.55
JAN 1995 Unch                                          MAR 206.20 + 4.10
MAR 1975 – 4                                            MAY 202.70 + 3.70
MAY 1969 – 5                                            JUL 200.95 + 3.70
JUL 1961 – 6                                              SEP 199.65 + 3.90
SEP 1953 – 7                                             DEC 198.25 + 4.05
NOV 1948 – 7                                           MAR 196.80 + 4.20