The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of October were 5.39% lower than the same month last year, to total 3.17 million bags, this number made up of 3.06 million bags of arabica coffee up 3.29% from the same month last year and 110,675 bags of Conilon robusta coffee down 71.63% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first four months of the current July 2022 to June 2023 Brazil coffee year, to be 1.39% lower, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 11.03 million bags.

Weather conditions within Brazil have been reported to have remained conducive through most coffee growing areas, with adequate rainfall received thus far in November. Weather forecasters are expecting rainfall to continue across the vast coffee growing regions over the next few days.

The U.S. Governments National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre have released an updated report to revise their earlier forecast for La Niña climatic conditions. The report indicates that there is, a 76% chance for a La Niña phenomenon weather pattern to continue into December and through to the first two months of 2023. The report goes on to indicate that there is a 57% chance for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions to follow from February through to April next year.

The December 2022 to January 2023 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday to register this at 88.13 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.54% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage may be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for Robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 6,805 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 448,704 bags, with 88.20% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 395,746 bags and the remaining 11.80% being held in the USA at a total 52,958. Of this, a total 283,921 bags, or 63.28% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 30.82% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a 96,958 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 363,104 bags pending grading on the day.

It was a firmer on the commodity markets yesterday, as newly released US inflation data slowed in October, signalling a potential move away from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy stance. showed that . The Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note. The Corn, Sugar, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.168 Sterling, at 1.019 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.345 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the yesterday trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note. This early support was short lived, as the markets quickly dipped back below par to trend softer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York and London markets would be seen to rebound from the morning lows and find support. This support buoyed the markets firmer, with both the New York and London markets gaining momentum to rally late in the day. Under fair volumes of trade, both markets continued to project in a firmer direction with the late buying support. This saw the New York and London markets hit a ceiling late in the day to limit the days gains. The New York market settled near to the highs of the day on a very firm note, while the London market dropped back slightly from the late afternoon highs to likewise settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note with 66.67% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 90% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, and with the New York market gaining momentum late in the day to settle near to the highs of the day, might indicate some degree of confidence and direction to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN    1827 + 8                                        DEC   171.00 + 5.85
MAR  1814 + 6                                        MAR  167.70 + 5.35
MAY  1805 + 5                                        MAY   166.90 + 5.35
JUL    1798 + 4                                        JUL     166.20 + 5.35
SEP    1791 + 3                                        SEP     165.35 + 5.40
NOV  1784 + 3                                        DEC    164.60 + 5.55
JAN   1793 + 3                                        MAR   164.90 + 5.85
MAR 1802 + 4                                        MAY   165.20 + 6.25