The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of July were 1.59% lower than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 10.21 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first ten months of the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 5.72% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 103.74 million bags.

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 1.70% higher than the previous year at a total of 171.27 million bags for the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year, to grow by 1.66% from the previous year to reach a total of 178.53 million bags. Therefore, the global coffee markets are indicated to have a coffee year deficit of 7.26 million bags heading into the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year.

The ICO reported an increase in exports from Brazil during July, which registered a 2.80% increase in exports when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 2.60 million bags during June. There was a comparative decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered a 6.20% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 3.01 million bags during July. Within the ICO report, exports for July were seen to have decreased by 1.10% year on year from Africa to a total 1.37 million bags.

The ICO report includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for July that exports were 9.40% higher than the same period in the previous year to total 1.66 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 9,508 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 458,411 bags, with 98.33% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 450,773 bags and the remaining 1.67% being held in the USA at a total 7,638. Of this, a total 117,997 bags, or 25.74% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 69.18% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 40.62 usc/Lb. This equates to 27.16% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, as newly released US jobs data showed tightness in the market, shifting focus to the Federal Reserve and what monetary policy decisions may follow. The Corn and Sugar markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.249 Sterling, at 1.074 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.977 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day trading on mildly firmer note, while the London market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a modest softer note. Both markets were quickly pressured lower by selling, encountering resistance to see the markets move lower during the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets found support to move towards par and continue to oscillate either side before speculative selling returned to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way the markets continued a downward path. The London market followed the New York market lower to continue to project lower with a measure of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the New York market narrowly recover some of the earlier losses of the day, while the London market was seen to also settle near to the lows of the day, on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 89.09% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 93.02% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   2407 – 49                                          DEC   149.80 – 4.00
JAN    2325 – 35                                          MAR  150.95 – 3.85
MAR  2277 – 29                                          MAY   152.10 – 3.75
MAY  2258 – 24                                          JUL     152.75 – 3.70
JUL    2253 – 20                                          SEP     153.25 – 3.65
SEP    2247 – 19                                          DEC    154.25 – 3.70
NOV  2244 – 19                                          MAR   155.35 – 3.70
JAN   2235 – 19                                          MAY   156.40 – 3.70