The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of September were 4.26% lower than the same month last year, to total 3.03 million bags, this number made up of 2.40 million bags of arabica coffee down 20.26% from the same month last year and 624,999 bags of Conilon robusta coffee, up 317% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first three months of the current July 2023 to June 2024 Brazil coffee year, to be 1.22 million bags or 15.50% higher, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 9.09 million bags.

Tomorrow is the Nossa Senhora de Aparecida national holiday in Brazil, which will likely see physical coffee trade muted in Brazil, for the day. To keep Brazil farmers and exporters off the field of play and likely encourage many within the country to take a bridge day follow on holiday on Friday to extend the long weekend

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 442,222 bags, with 98.37% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 435,037 bags and the remaining 1.63% being held in the USA at a total 7,185 Bags. Of this, a total 133,835 bags, or 30.13% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 64.48% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday to register this at 41.77 usc/Lb. This equates to 28.32% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of key US Consumer Price Index date due to be released tomorrow which may provide speculative guidance on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.229 Sterling, at 1.060 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.052 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day trading in modest softer territory. The New York market took a firmer track into the early morning session, while the London market followed suit to likewise trend firmer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market was attracted some degree of selling pressure to drop back from the early morning highs, this selling was short lived as the markets rebounded from the lows of the day to trend firmer for the remainder of the afternoon session. The London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner. The London market was met with selling pressure to plot a softer path into negative territory as the day drew to a close. The New York market found support near to the lows of the day to stage a late recovery and settle on a firmer note at the close, while the London market continued to trend lower before rebounding from the lows of the day to recover all of the earlier losses and settle near to unchanged for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note with 40% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 61.70% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This relatively firmer performance for the New York and London markets, albeit that the markets fell back from the earlier highs of the day, might indicate some degree of confidence and direction to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   2331 + 6                                            DEC    147.50 + 1.45
JAN    2245 + 2                                            MAR   148.45 + 1.20
MAR  2198 + 2                                            MAY   149.25 + 1.15
MAY  2183 + 4                                            JUL      150.05 + 1.15
JUL    2172 + 4                                            SEP      150.85 + 1.25
SEP    2157 + 3                                            DEC     151.95 + 1.20
NOV  2152 + 3                                            MAR    153.45 + 1.15
JAN   2143 – 2                                            MAY     154.65 + 1.25