The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net short position by 8.91% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 10th. October 2023:  to register a new net short position of 24,406 lots, which is the equivalent of 6,918,992 bags. This net short position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 52.72% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 10th. October 2023: to register a new net long position of 9,266 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,544,333 bags. This net long position has most likely little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 7,249 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 440,773 bags, with 98.37% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 433,588 bags and the remaining 1.63% being held in the USA at a total 7,185 Bags. Of this, a total 139,635 bags, or 31.68% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 63.04% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday to register this at 46.58 usc/Lb. This equates to 30.07% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Corn, Soybean and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.216 Sterling, at 1.052 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.081 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day on Friday trading to the north of par on a firmer note, while the London market started the day trading on a modest softer note. Both markets continued to oscillate either side of par for the remainder of the morning session before gaining momentum to trend firmer as support was seen to build during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York and London markets, buoyed further with buy stops triggered as speculative buyers became active, upward momentum continued to build to see both markets hit a ceiling for the day’s session, to limit the gains for the day. Late in the day the markets dropped back from the day’s highs to see the New York market settle on a firmer note at the close, while the London market followed suit to likewise settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 54.90% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 88.18% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through firmer close for the markets, might provide some degree of support and direction, with the New York market settling near to the highs of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   2388 + 28                                         DEC    154.90 + 5.60
JAN    2284 + 29                                         MAR   155.15 + 5.15
MAR  2227 + 20                                         MAY   155.60 + 4.95
MAY  2209 + 16                                         JUL      156.25 + 4.90
JUL    2194 + 13                                         SEP      157.00 + 4.90
SEP    2182 + 13                                         DEC     158.30 + 5.00
NOV  2174 + 12                                         MAR    159.70 + 4.90
JAN   2162 + 13                                         MAY     160.65 + 4.80