I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

27 Oct 2023

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,705 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 406,466 bags, with 98.23% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 399,281 bags and the remaining 1.77% being held in the USA at a total 7,185 Bags. Of this, a total 121,631 bags, or 29.92% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 64.42% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2023 to January 2024 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday to register this at 51.43 Usc/Lb. This equates to 31.90% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets softer on the day. The Cocoa, Wheat, Gold, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.213 Sterling, at 1.055 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.996 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a modest softer note respectively. The markets oscillated around par for the remainder of the early morning session, before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see both the New York and London markets drop below par and trend softer during the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market found support to trend firmer from the earlier lows, this saw the market hit a ceiling for the day to limit the gains and drop back towards par during the afternoon session. The London was seen to drop lower, pressured by selling activity. The New York market was seen to find support late in the day to trend back towards par, and to settle on a softer note at the close, while the London market followed suit to likewise recover most of the earlier losses to settle on a modest softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 70.15% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 55% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets recovered some of the earlier losses of the day to settle in softer territory, does little to indicate direction and one might therefore think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:


LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT               NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN     2420 – 47                                       DEC    161.20 – 1.10
MAR   2385 – 42                                       MAR   160.90 – 1.15
MAY   2367 – 43                                       MAY    161.40 – 1.25
JUL     2351 – 41                                       JUL      162.25 – 1.30
SEP     2344 – 38                                       SEP      162.80 – 1.35
NOV   2335 – 38                                       DEC     163.95 – 1.40
JAN    2323 – 38                                       MAR    165.55 – 1.40
MAR  2316 – 38                                       MAY    166.55 – 1.55