Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative switch their net short position within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st. October 2023:  to register a new net long position of 2,327 lots, which is the equivalent of 659,694 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 12,454 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 347,555 bags, with 98.58% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 342,627 bags and the remaining 1.42% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 84,514 bags, or 24.32% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 69.14% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2023 to January 2024 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday to register this at 63.84 Usc/Lb. This equates to 36.75% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as investors await further news later this week on the US Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate hikes. The Coffee, Corn, Cocoa, Sugar, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.236 Sterling, at 1.072 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.891 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on modest firmer notes respectively. Both markets attracted support during the early morning session to track mildly firmer for the remainder of the morning session before being capped early to drop back from the earlier highs and trend back towards par. As the afternoon progressed the New York market hit a low for the day to limit the losses for the day with support returning to the floor. The New York market was supported by buying in the market to gain momentum and rally during the afternoon session. The London market continued a firmer path carrying upward momentum into the afternoon session. The London market settled near to the highs of the day on a firm note, while the New York market rally saw the market settle on a firmer note, with most of their earlier gains intact. The open interest on the prompt month in New York 68,053 Lots, ahead of first notice day on the 21st November 2023.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 94.34% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 87.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might provide some degree of support and direction, with both the New York and the London markets settling near to the highs of the day and with first notice day on the prompt month in New York approaching in just over two weeks’ time one might think that the markets are due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT               NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN       2422 + 50                                        DEC       173.70 + 2.80

MAR      2361 + 38                                 MAR       171.70 + 2.55

MAY      2335 + 34                                       MAY       172.15 + 2.55

JUL        2312 + 31                                       JUL         172.95 + 2.45

SEP        2299 + 30                                        SEP         173.70 + 2.40

NOV       2289 + 29                                       DEC        174.85 + 2.45

JAN        2279 + 30                                        MAR       176.60 + 2.55

MAR     2269 + 27                                 MAY       177.50 + 2.50