The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 150% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 7th. November 2023: to register a new long position of 5,828 lots, which is the equivalent of 1,652,212 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of October were 24.46% higher than the same month last year, to total 4.08 million bags, this number made up of 3.42 million bags of arabica coffee up 8.02% from the same month last year and 662,051 bags of Conilon robusta coffee, up 479% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first four months of the current July 2023 to June 2024 Brazil coffee year, to be 1.91 million bags or 16.96% higher, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 13.17 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 302,235 bags, with 98.37% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 297,307 bags and the remaining 1.63% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 55,810 bags, or 18.47% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 74.02% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2023 to January 2024 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday to register this at 65.12 Usc/Lb. This equates to 36.45% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with new U.S. consumer prices index (CPI) data due to be released on Tuesday. The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.227 Sterling, at 1.069 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.908 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on a steady note, to move south of par through the morning session. The trend continued throughout the early morning session with some recovery posted as the morning progressed. The upward momentum continued to build in technical trade, and the market continued a firmer trajectory, gaining support throughout the session, with the London market following suit. This saw the market track upward as speculative buying support returned to the floor. As the afternoon progressed, both markets continued to move in a firmer direction accentuating the gains for the day. The upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor at the top of the day, and both New York and London markets hit a ceiling late in the day to marginally limit the sessions gains. The New York market settled near to the highs of the day on a very firm note, while the London market followed suit to likewise settle on a very firm note, near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 95.35% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 83.83% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This very firm close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets tracking upward throughout the session to settle near to the highs, might possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN      2503 + 82                                      DEC 178.65 + 4.15
MAR    2436 + 61                                      MAR 173.20 + 2.65
MAY    2412 + 59                                      MAY 173.05 + 2.45
JUL      2389 + 59                                      JUL 173.70 + 2.40
SEP      2373 + 55                                      SEP 174.50 + 2.45
NOV    2361 + 54                                      DEC 175.75 + 2.45
JAN     2350 + 54                                      MAR 177.85 + 2.50
MAR   2337 + 54                                      MAY 178.70 + 2.35