As the week reaches its mid-point, it is first notice day in the prompt month in New York in less than six trading days, with 28,589 lots open interest to be resolved, New York is due for a holiday on Monday and a long weekend ahead, to leave London trading solo on the day. With the internal market within the largest producer nation remaining muted this week due to the Brazil Carnival holidays that are due to conclude today and may see industry players slowly return to the desk from tomorrow.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, has issued a concerning report highlighting ongoing shipment delays at Brazilian ports. According to their findings, a staggering 85% of coffee shipments faced delays in January of this year, marking the highest rate of delays ever recorded. This figure represents a significant increase from the already high rate of 81% reported in November 2023. The report attributes these delays primarily to the persistent congestion and rolling of shipments at port terminals. As a result of these delays, port terminals are operating at maximum capacity, leading to significant limitations in their ability to receive new cargo. The physical space constraints within the terminals exacerbate the issue, causing further bottlenecks in the handling of shipments. This situation poses serious challenges for coffee and other commodity exports from this leading producer country, of not only coffee but also beef, cotton, and breadbasket items that are also futures exchange commodities corn, orange juice, sugar and soybean.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 120 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 297,445 bags, with 98.38% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 292,640 bags and the remaining 1.62% being held in the USA at a total 4,805 Bags. Of this, a total 104,007 bags, or 34.97% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 40.24% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a 18,405 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 57,259 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 44.05 Usc/Lb. This equates to 22.82% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as stronger than expected US inflation figures tempered expectations of an early rate cut during the first quarter of the year. The Cocoa and Corn markets ended the day on a positive note, the Wheat market unchanged, while the Coffee, Sugar, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.260 Sterling, at 1.071 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.954 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on modest near to unchanged softer notes respectively, carrying through pressure from the close on Monday. The New York market was pressured lower early in the day, while the London market followed suit to also drop back into softer territory during the early morning session. The late morning session saw the New York market find support to rebound from the early lows and trend back above par, setting a new high for the day. As the afternoon progressed, speculative selling returned to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The London followed suit and the markets continued to project lower to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the New York and London markets recover some of the earlier losses of the day to see both markets settle on softer notes at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 81.63% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 65.82% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets does little to inspire confidence, nor does it indicate direction albeit that the New York market recovered some of the earlier losses of the day, ahead of first notice day on the prompt month on the 21st February 2024, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR   3284 – 40                                         MAR    193.00 – 2.60
MAY   3163 – 29                                         MAY    188.05 – 3.10
JUL     3077 – 30                                         JUL      187.30 – 2.55
SEP     2998 – 29                                         SEP      187.45 – 2.30
NOV   2924 – 35                                         DEC     187.35 – 2.25
JAN    2878 – 35                                         MAR    187.45 – 2.20
MAR  2853 – 35                                         MAY    188.00 – 2.10
MAY  2836 – 35                                         JUL       188.30 – 1.90