The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 8.94% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 13th February 2024: to register a new long position of 38,062 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,790,408 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 3.62% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 13th February 2024: to register a new net long position of 45,900 Lots which is the equivalent of 7,650,000 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of softer trade that has since followed.

The latest in a string of independent Brazil new crop forecast updates has come to the fore, with an independent London based bank reporting their forecast for the new Brazil 2024/2025 coffee crop to be 69.40 million bags or up 4.68% from the previous 2023/2024 coffee crop. This estimate is marginally higher than the median average of independent forecasters who foresee the on average, the overall Brazil 2024/2025 coffee production to potentially reach 68 million bags.

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of January were 12,496 bags or 2.53% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 481,586 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 2.18% decrease when compared to the same month last year, to total 403,508 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 4.27% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 78,078 bags exported in January 2024. The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first four months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 35,526 bags or 1.96% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,779,367 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of January, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 27.23% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 85.57 million US Dollars.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,800 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 307,262 bags, with 98.44% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 302,457 bags and the remaining 1.56% being held in the USA at a total 4,805 Bags. Of this, a total 114,094 bags, or 37.13% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 39.12% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a 2,240 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 65,717 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 44.23 Usc/Lb. This equates to 23.69% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, newly released economic data from the USA indicated consumer prices rose more than expected during January, while speculative investors look to the US Federal Reserve for fiscal policy direction. The US dollar traded firmer on the day. The Coffee, Sugar, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Corn and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.261 Sterling, at 1.078 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.968 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest softer note, both markets quickly found support to trend above par, tracking firmer as the morning progressed. During the late morning session, the markets fell back from the early highs as selling pressure weighed to see the markets limit the gains for the early morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market found support in a firmer direction, with the London market following suit. The New York and London markets continued to gain momentum to rally late in the day around the opening of business day in the Americas’, light volumes of trade, both markets continued to move in a firmer direction accentuating the gains for the day. The upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor at the top of the day, and the New York market hit a ceiling very late in the day to limit the sessions gains. The New York market settled on a firmer note at the close, while the London market dropped back from the highs to likewise settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 60% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 62% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The New York market is closed today for the U.S.A. Presidents Day holiday, which is observed in not all but many of the States and shall leave the London market trading solo for the day. One might think that this shall slow trade within the London market for the day, and one might think the market is due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR    3231 + 26                                        MAR   190.85 + 1.55
MAY    3141 + 33                                        MAY   186.70 + 1.55
JUL      3076 + 30                                        JUL     185.60 + 1.50
SEP      3016 + 36                                        SEP     185.45 + 1.55
NOV    2954 + 40                                        DEC    185.70 + 1.85
JAN     2904 + 45                                        MAR   185.95 + 1.95
MAR   2876 + 43                                        MAY    186.40 + 1.95
MAY   2856 + 43                                        JUL      186.60 + 1.95