The weather conditions within Brazil are being monitored as the first months of harvest in the Brazil Conillon robusta areas is set to begin in the coming month, while the arabica harvest is due to begin around mid-year. There are reports of reduced rainfall in the first two weeks of this month for some regions within the vast Brazil coffee growing landscape, to include areas as far apart as Cerrado and Sao Paulo. The earlier reports of lighter than average rainfall for Zona da Mata and Sul de Minas in the arabica areas, are reported to have improved through February. The next couple of months are bound to see reduced rainfall as this country moves into their traditional drier winter months and the arabica harvest anticipated to peak around July. The external influence and macroeconomic action surrounding the US Dollar strength against other major currencies, has seen the Brazil Real lose 1.90% in value against the US Dollar during the first two weeks of March and well financed producers continue further sales of the prevailing July 2023 to June 2024 coffee crop at a measured pace.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 7,380 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 458,107 bags, with 99.07% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 453,852 bags and the remaining 0.93% being held in the USA at a total 4,255 Bags. Of this, a total 233,248 bags, or 50.92% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.71% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 8,352 bags; to register 172,071 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 34.78 Usc/Lb. This equates to 19.04% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day, on the back of a weakening US Dollar, which is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Sugar, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn and Wheat markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.279 Sterling, at 1.094 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.971 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a firmer note, carrying through the momentum from the close on Tuesday. Both the New York and London markets set highs for the day during the early morning session, encountering resistance to drop back and trend softer for the remainder of the day. The markets were pressured lower throughout the late morning session, with some degree of selling in the market. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trade lower, accentuating the losses for the day, albeit under modest volumes of trade. The London was seen to drop lower, pressured by selling activity. The New York market was seen to settle into a range during the late afternoon session, to see the market close on a softer note, while the London market continued to trend softer, before finding support near to the lows of the day, to recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 63.51% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 73.03% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets recovered some of the earlier losses of the day, with the US Dollar index losing over 0.20% against a basket of other currencies throughout the day’s session, one might think that the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAY   3260 – 47                                          MAY   182.65 – 3.25
JUL     3159 – 39                                          JUL     181.25 – 2.85
SEP     3090 – 36                                          SEP     180.95 – 2.70
NOV   3013 – 34                                          DEC    180.80 – 2.65
JAN    2949 – 34                                          MAR   181.05 – 2.60
MAR  2901 – 36                                          MAY    181.35 – 2.60
MAY  2873 – 36                                          JUL      181.25 – 2.60
JUL    2850 – 36                                          SEP      180.95 – 2.40