The markets are for the moment, devoid of fundamental news, the mainstream northern hemisphere physical coffee markets in the midst of the summer holiday season, many consumer roasters remain side-lined.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual average increases, climbing to levels last seen in February 2023, up from more than twenty-year low recorded earlier in the year that registered at 253,144 bags on the 4th January 2024, to register a still comparatively low 813,378 bags yesterday. This marks an increase of 280,855 bags or 33.74% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 532,523 bags on 23rd July 2023. These certified warehouse coffee stocks are stored in the certified warehouses of the exchange in Europe and to a lesser extent, warehouses in the USA. The largest contribution toward the increase in certified stocks, Brazil semi-washed arabica coffee, supported by shipments from largest Central American washed arabica country Honduras. The prevailing New York arabica market conditions are conducive to lead one to anticipate that there may be some replenishment of Brazil semi-washed arabica as the Brazil 202/4/25 crop flows to the markets, albeit through difficult logistical conditions. The European warehouses of the exchange must though, grapple through the implications and allowances of the EUDR regulation that is due to come into force at the end of this year. These daily released certified washed arabica coffee stock figures tend to be viewed by the speculative sector of the markets, as an indication of arabica coffee availability, or lack thereof, in the consumer markets where these exchange certified coffee stocks are held.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to decrease by 7,345 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 813,378 bags, with 98.31% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 799,760 bags and the remaining 1.69% being held in the USA at a total 13,718 Bags. Of this, a total 412,981 bags, or 50.77% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.46% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day; to register 16,755 bags pending grading on the day.

The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 35.85 Usc/Lb. This equates to 14.99% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity yesterday, awaiting fresh economic data due to be released on Thursday from leading consumer country USA., while according to a poll by Reuters, completed by several independent economists, the speculative sector of the markets is anticipating a 96% chance of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September. The leading in influence Energy markets softer on the day. Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.289 Sterling, at 1.084 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.585 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on negative notes respectively. The markets continued on a softer path throughout the remainder of the morning session to accentuate the losses for the day albeit in light volume of trade. As the afternoon progressed the volume increased, albeit in modest terms, to contribute to the day’s direction with speculative selling returning to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed suit and the markets continued to project lower with a measure of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. It was a choppy day in New York and volume of trade light. The late afternoon session saw the markets rebound slightly off the lows of the day to recover a small degree of losses, to settle on softer notes at the close respectively.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 90.09% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 82.30% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The softer close, with both markets settling near to the lows for the day, does little to indicate direction with the markets losing ground during the later afternoon session, one might therefore think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP        4481 – 100                                   SEP        239.10 – 3.95
NOV      4327 – 80                                     DEC       237.50 – 3.80
JAN       4142 – 66                                     MAR      235.85 – 3.60
MAR      3986 – 53                                    MAY       232.90 – 3.40
MAY      3869 – 51                                    JUL         230.10 – 3.30
JUL        3758 – 57                                    SEP         227.50 – 3.20
SEP        3680 – 57                                    DEC        224.85 – 3.05
NOV      3623 – 57                                    MAR       222.10 – 2.90