New weather forecasts emanating from Brazil show that dry weather is expected to continue across all coffee growing districts, with temperatures remaining in the mid-teens in degrees Celsius. The month of July, which is historically Brazil’s driest month of the year, saw the Brazil Coffee Belt receive below average rainfall for the month. With the current harvest near completion in the robusta Conilon areas and over the peak in the natural arabica areas. The next full moon, which is typically seen as a harbinger in cooler winter conditions, will be Sunday. The month of August is the last of the seasonal winter months in Brazil, weather forecasters indicate temperate weather conditions for the next fortnight, to likely dampen any residual cool weather speculative activity within the coffee terminal markets. The latest forecasts from the U.S. Government National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre have reported that there is a 70% chance that La Niña weather conditions will develop in September and prevail for the remainder of the year, into the beginning of 2025.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 6,452 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 821,108 bags, with 98.09% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 805,465 bags and the remaining 1.91% being held in the USA at a total 15,643 Bags. Of this, a total 412,981 bags, or 50.30% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.32% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day; to register 47,523 bags pending grading on the day.

The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 37.30 Usc/Lb. This equates to 16.16% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as traders await a slew of economic data due to be released from the world’s largest economy later this week along with closing remarks from the US Federal Reserve Chairman at the conclusion of the July Monetary Policy meeting today. In other economic news, the Bank of Japan have raised interest rates to 0.25% marking the highest levels seen since 2008. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.285 Sterling, at 1.083 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.612 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on modest firmer notes respectively. The markets were seen to set a new high for the morning session before encountering some degree of resistance to drop back from the morning highs and trend softer. Both the New York and London markets were pressured lower for the remainder of the late morning session, to see the markets set a new low for the day. As the afternoon progressed the New York market recovered from the earlier lows, gaining support albeit in modest volumes as the market climbed back through par to set a ceiling for the session. The London market followed suit to likewise recover from the earlier lows and trend back towards par, trading in firmer territory for the afternoon session. The late afternoon session saw the New York market drop back from the highs and settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note, with options expiry on the prompt month approaching on the 9th August 2024. The London market was seen to drop back from the highs of the day and in limited volume trade back through par to settle on near to unchanged modest softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged note with 1.43% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a modest near to unchanged positive note, with 14.29% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through mixed close for the markets, with both the New York and the London markets settling near to unchanged on the day in limited volume ahead might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP     4266 – 1                                           SEP       230.80 + 0.40
NOV   4118 – 4                                           DEC      229.60 + 0.25
JAN    3969 – 4                                           MAR     228.30 + 0.15
MAR  3843 – 3                                           MAY     226.20 Unch
MAY  3744 – 1                                           JUL       224.25 – 0.05
JUL    3654 + 2                                           SEP       222.45 – 0.05
SEP    3581 + 9                                           DEC      220.05 Unch
NOV  3523 + 9                                           MAR     217.80 Unch