The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 4.93% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 30th. July 2024: to register a new long position of 41,570 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,784,911 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 10.68% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 30th. July 2024: to register a new net long position of 32,726 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,454,333 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed.

Safras & Mercado have also estimated that almost 87% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested, as of the 29th. July 2024. The harvest this year is at a faster pace, when compared to the same time last year which was reported at around 80%. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 66.04 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 57.45 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 20.28 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, which is reported at 98% of the harvest complete and approximately 37.17 million bags of arabica coffee harvested, which is reported at 82% complete thus far.

In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, the consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth to revise their 2024/25 Brazil coffee crop production lower by 1.64% to now potentially be around 65.90 million bags.  Their revised forecast anticipates 44.70 million bags of mostly natural arabica coffee to come from this leading producer, up 0.90% from their earlier forecast, along with an estimated 21.20 million bags Conillon robusta coffee, 6.60% down from their earlier forecast.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 7,275 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 830,094 bags, with 98.11% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 814,451 bags and the remaining 1.89% being held in the USA at a total 15,643 Bags. Of this, a total 417,671 bags, or 50.32% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.98% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 10,888 bags on the day; to register 47,411 bags pending grading on the day.

The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 38.77 Usc/Lb. This equates to 16.82% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets on Friday, after key economic data from the US released on Friday indicated that the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% during the month of July. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.280 Sterling, at 1.093 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.728 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a firmer notes respectively. Both markets attracted further support during the early morning session to track mildly firmer for the remainder of the morning session before gaining momentum, as support was seen to build during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market continued to trade to the north of par albeit that the market was pressured lower back towards par during the session. The London market followed suit to likewise trend in a firmer direction for the remainder of the day’s session. The New York market hit a ceiling late in the day to limit the gains for the day with sellers returning to the floor. The New York market dropped back from the highs late in the day, to settle on a firmer note at the close. The London market followed suit, to continue to trend firmer buoyed by support within the market, to encounter resistance during the afternoon session to set a ceiling for the day. The London market fell back from the highs of the day to trend towards par and settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note with 10% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 72.22% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might provide some degree of support and direction, albeit that the London market fell back from the highs of the day a choppy session in a comparatively narrow range on the day, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP     4227 + 2                                           SEP     230.50 + 3.25
NOV   4088 + 5                                           DEC    229.55 + 3.15
JAN    3947 + 6                                           MAR   228.35 + 3.00
MAR  3822 + 8                                           MAY   226.45 + 3.00
MAY  3725 + 9                                           JUL     224.45 + 2.90
JUL    3641 + 11                                         SEP     222.55 + 2.85
SEP    3571 + 13                                         DEC   220.25 + 2.85
NOV  3511 + 13                                         MAR  218.00 + 2.85