There are however concerns over the apparent lower percentage of screen 17 and higher new crop Brazil coffees, which is causing exporters to pay up for bolder bean stocks and the price margin between the smaller bean Brazil arabica coffees and the bolder bean Brazil arabica is broadening. This has pressured asking differentials for the bold bean Brazil coffees into positive premiums over the reference prices of the New York market, but in terms of the soft nature of the New York market the outright prices still remain relatively favourable for the consumer industries.

There remain weather concerns over the mild El Nino that is presently taking place within the Pacific ocean, but so far the effects of this El Nino phenomenon have not been severe and while it with the lack of any other threatening news gains some attention, it is doing little more than influencing some degree of cautions restraint on the part of the bears within the market. In the meantime the charts continue to dampen the spirits of the technical traders and there is limited support for much in the way of a recovery for the markets, which remain within their presently soft trading range.

There is however the possibility that should the markets retain the buoyancy of yesterday’s trade, that it might inspire some short covering to come into play and one might suggest that should there be continued stability today, that they might well add a little more weight by the end of the week. With perhaps the lack of producer price fixation selling activity over the markets at present, being a supportive factor for the short term market.

The arbitrage between the markets broadened yesterday to register this at 47.85 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 39.17% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact upon the fortunes of the London market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,025 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,105,273 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,450 bags.

The commodity markets had a better day yesterday, with the overall macro commodity index taking a modest positive track for the day. There was however further good economic news out of the U.S.A. yesterday in the form of positive labour and housing data and followed by indications that an interest rate hike in September remains a strong possibility, which assists to maintain the muscle of the dollar and in this respect, is a negative factor of many commodities. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Copper, Soybean, Silver and Platinum markets had a day of buoyancy and the Cocoa market was steady, while the Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn and Gold markets had a softer day’s trade.

The London and New York markets opened the day yesterday with modest buoyancy, within and environment of thin and hesitant trade. This positive stance set the mood for the day and with the added influence of the positive nature of the macro commodity index in play, both markets maintained their upside track through to the close. The London market continued to end the day on a positive note and with 75% of the earlier in the day’s gains intact, while the New York market similarly closed on a positive note and with 66.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close is likely to inspire a degree of cautious confidence and one might expect to see a hesitantly steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JUL 1759 – 2
SEP 1638 + 12                             SEP   122.15 + 1.90
NOV 1658 + 13                          DEC   125.25 + 2.00
JAN 1675 + 12                           MAR  128.75 + 2.00
MAR 1696 + 12                         MAY  130.90 + 1.95
MAY 1717 + 13                           JUL  133.05 + 2.00
JUL 1733 + 13                             SEP  135.15 + 2.00
SEP 1753 + 17                            DEC  138.05 + 1.95
NOV 1774 + 15                          MAR 140.85 + 1.75
JAN 1795 + 15                           MAY 142.60 + 1.70