The July 2025 to June 2026 crop harvest mostly complete in the Conilon robusta regions, the arabica harvest is still underway in the southeast, and the month of August, which is seasonally, the last of the winter months, see weather forecast indicating a mild cool front over the next days, although this is expected to see temperatures remain in double digit degrees Celsius, to likely dampen residual cool weather speculative activity within the coffee terminal markets as the last winter full moon due tomorrow, 9th August. Temperate conditions are forecast for the longer-term outlook across the vast coffee growing areas to remain seasonally normal. With the new harvest near to complete, news of lower-than-average intake of fine cups, is reflected in the internal prices for quality bica and so too in the translated differentials for fine cups. The focus within the speculative sector of the markets meanwhile and the seemingly range bound futures market as the pressure of the near to complete Brazil arabica harvest subsides, may soon turn to the longer-term forecasts and weather prospects for the onset of the new spring and summer rain season for Brazil, to come in the last quarter of the year, to trigger the flowering for the next 2026 crop to come.

The export season for the main producer countries is drawing to a close, with less than two months left of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, ahead of new crop harvests to come from Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, which are expected to start harvest in the lower lying areas and start to flow to consumer markets, in the latter quarter of this year.

While the northern hemisphere largest consumer markets continue to enjoy the summer season, winter buying activities should be anticipated to start to come to the fore around September, ahead of the new October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year. In the USA, the latest round of tariffs carries both immediate, and long-term impact if not resolved. Local representative bodies and lobby groups continue to push the agenda for a reduction or nullification of import duties on coffee, which may take time. There is negligible local coffee production in the USA, but with hundreds of thousands of jobs reliant on the success of the coffee consumer industry in the country, the pressure is on. Meanwhile coffee shipments on the water heading to USA ports from various origins, and now with varied percentages of sudden additional and significant import duty costs to bare. Assuming that there is an opportunity or the political will in Washington to do so, any reduction or nullification of import duties is urgently required, and time is already in short supply. In Europe the approaching EUDR conditions for compliance continue to be a focal point as the new October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year draws near. The level of coffee producer country preparedness for compliance to the upcoming EUDR procedures is varied, while in the EU., the application of these regulations that one would presume are to come in the form of supportive compliance documentation ahead of consignment importation, for the listed commodities Coffee, Cattle, Cocoa, Palm Oil, Rubber, Soy and Timber s not yet clear, thus uncertainties regarding the regulatory reporting process and the implementation of the process by country and at ports, continue.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to decrease by 7,804 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 743,240 bags, with 91.57% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 680,616 bags and the remaining 8.43% being held in the USA at a total 62,624 Bags. Of this, a total 149,263 bags or 20.08% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 24.75% of these certified coffees, from Mexico. The pending grading stocks decreased by 6,941 bags on the day, registering 56,249 bags pending grading.

The September 2025 to September 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 142.76 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.94% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, buoyed by traditional safe haven demand, which saw Gold reach a new two week high and trade tensions continue to be a focus for many investors. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and Sugar markets remained unchanged on the day. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.343 Sterling, at 1.166 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.416 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets opened the day on a firmer note, with the markets continuing to trade to the north of par for the remainder of the early morning session. The New York market set a new high for the day during the morning session before encountering selling pressure to limit the gains for the day and see the market drop back, still trading in a positive range. The London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day during the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets continued to trade above par, pressured lower briefly by some degree of selling. Buying support buoyed the markets firmer during the afternoon session to see support garnered and a trend in a firmer direction. This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed. The market settled on a firm note at the close with most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to also settle on a firm note albeit back from the days highs on a modest firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 25.53% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 73.95% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to see the New York market settle near to the highs of the day, in a comparatively good volume day, might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP     3418 + 24                                         SEP       297.80 + 4.40
NOV   3377 + 37                                         DEC      291.15 + 4.75
JAN    3320 + 43                                         MAR     283.70 + 4.85
MAR  3279 + 47                                          MAY     278.45 + 4.80
MAY  3251 + 50                                          JUL       273.30 + 4.85
JUL    3229 + 53                                          SEP       267.15 + 4.75
SEP    3210 + 52                                          DEC      263.00 + 4.65
NOV  3193 + 52                                          MAR     261.00 + 4.50