The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 24.34% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 20th. February; to register a new net short sold position of 57,594 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 3.78%, to register a net long position of 41,613 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 22.66%, to register a net short sold position of 58,544 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 16,599,800 bags has most likely been decreased, following a period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the managed money fund sector of the market.

The week has started with no startling fundamental news for the coffee markets and sentiment remains overall negative, in line with the potential for steady price fixation selling pressure for the London market that comes with the large new Vietnam crop. With the prospects for a significantly larger new Brazil arabica coffee crop, having a similar influence upon sentiment within the New York market.

The May 2018 to May 2018 contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 42.79 usc/Lb., while this equates to 35.1% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,711 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,892,259 bags. There was meanwhile larger in number 2,445 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 14,135 bags.

The commodity markets were mostly steady to buoyant yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking an upside track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, New York arabica Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Sugar, London robusta Coffee, Copper and Orange Juice markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.31% higher; to see this index registered at 430.07. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.396 to Sterling, at 1.232 to the Euro and with the dollar buying 3.224 Brazilian Real, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at US$ 67.70 per barrel.

The London market started the day yesterday on a steady note and trading mostly to the positive side of par, while the New York market started the day on a positive note and with early buoyancy and to see the markets maintaining this stance, into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London market started to come under pressure and to head south into negative territory, while the New York market following a dip back into more modest positive territory recovered and with presumably some degree of short covering support to post reasonable gains, but to dip back a bit in late trade.

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 70% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive and with 52.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the New York market showing some modest muscle is likely to once again inspire some cautious support for early trade today and set the markets for a steady start for early trade, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR 1790 – 3                                                MAR 120.50 + 1.05
MAY 1744 – 7                                                MAY 121.90 + 0.90
JUL 1773 – 6                                                  JUL 124.05 + 0.90
SEP 1777 – 5                                                  SEP 126.30 + 0.95
NOV 1781 – 5                                                DEC 129.70 + 1.05
JAN 1788 – 5                                                 MAR 133.05 + 1.10
MAR 1800 – 3                                                MAY 135.05 + 1.10
MAY 1815 – 6                                                JUL 136.85 + 1.10
JUL 1833 – 9                                                  SEP 138.50 + 1.10
SEP 1836 – 9                                                  DEC 141.05 + 1.15