I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

31 May 2018

With the months export registrations in hand, the General Statistics Office in Vietnam have estimated that the countries coffee exports for the month of May shall total 2.33 million bags of mostly robusta coffees. This they say would contribute to the countries cumulative exports for the first four months of this year to be 1.8% higher than the same period last year, at a total of approximately 13.75 million bags. Although cumulative coffee exports were higher in volume for the first five months of this year, these coffee exports were cumulatively 12% lower in export revenue value, posted at 1.602 billion US Dollars, as is detailed in the report.

The leading robusta coffee producer in West Africa, Ivory Coast, have issued a provisional report that the countries coffee exports for the month of April almost tripled that of the export performance from Abidjan versus the same month last year, to reach 161,200 bags in April. This brings the cumulative first four months of the year exports from Ivory Coast to 263,933 bags, or 28% higher than that of the same time last year.

Brazil is observing Corpus Christi holiday today and there is news that the truckers strike has started to unwind and that operations are starting up again after the disruptions experienced over the past ten days, to provide some respite for the nation. In the coffee sector, the coffee exporters association Cecafe, have estimated that exports of coffee are likely to be affected by as much as 900,000 bags lower than anticipated, due to the protest action. There is though on the part of consumer markets, no particular concern for short to medium term coffee supply. Meanwhile and so long as the strike and protest action is resolved, fuel supplies replenished and the routes that were blockaded cleared, the country can return to business as usual. This with the holiday today, is likely to begin at the start of the new week and while the financial losses already incurred in so many sectors to include the sensitive poultry, beef and other short dated agricultural products cannot be fully recovered, at least a return to normality once the inevitable backlog is cleared.

The July 2018 to July 2018 contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 41.73 usc/Lb., while this equates to 34.69% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,179 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,015,718 bags. There was a decrease by 3,763 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,631 bags.

It was a generally buoyant day in the markets yesterday. The Italian election process and speculative perception of prospective economic uncertainty, presented instead a more positive picture yesterday in the renewed efforts to try to form a government and avoid second elections this year. The markets took heart, the Euro regaining lost ground, while the US Dollar slipped back on the day. It was a positive day for Oil, as well as Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper, Cocoa, arabica Coffee. It was a softer close on the day for Corn, Cotton, robusta Coffee, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets settled 0.1847% higher; to see this index registered at 438.93. The day starts with the US Dollar steady and trading at 1.33 to Sterling, at 1.167 to the Euro, and buying 3.723 Brazilian Real, while North Sea Oil buoyant, selling at US$ 76.37 per barrel.

The coffee markets opened the day on a mildly softer note in fair volume at the outset, with both markets turning positive as the morning session progressed and underlying speculative buyer support evident. The markets sustained a positive track, through midsession when upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor to weigh in on the markets as the afternoon progressed. The selling pressure pushed the markets back toward par toward the end of the session, where London broke through and maintained a softer note until the close, New York through par found last minute support once more, to finish the day in positive territory, near to unchanged and in the black. It was a buoyant day for both markets having spent much of the day above par and a hefty trade volume day in New York. It was a comparatively reserved day for London which set the close on the low of the da and the markets registered the close yesterday, as follows:

London Robusta US$/MT New York Arabica Usc/Lb.

MAY 1,700.00 - 9.00      JULY 120.30 + 0.05
JULY 1,732.00 - 9.00      SEPT 122.50 + 0.10
SEPT 1,723.00 - 5.00      DEC 126.05 + 0.10
NOV 1,729.00 - 5.00      MAR 129.45 + 0.10
JAN   1,733.00 - 4.00      MAY 131.65 + 0.05
MAR 1,743.00 - 3.00      JULY 133.60 + 0.05
MAY 1,752.00 - 1.00      SEPT 135.45 + 0.10
JULY 1,761.00 + 2.00    DEC 138.00 + 0.05
SEPT 1,773.00 + 2.00    MAR 140.55 Unch
NOV 1,785.00 + 2.00     MAY 142.20 Unch