I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

09 Jan 2019
8th January, 2019.
With the month of December behind us, the monthly coffee export figures have started to come forth and the National Coffee Institute in Honduras IHCAFE has reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of December were 15% lower than that of the same month in the previous year. The decline in exports has been reasoned as due to delays in ripening of coffee in the higher altitude areas, which are traditionally slower to ripen and later to harvest. The total exports for the month of December registered a total 256,598 Bags. The National Coffee Institute in Honduras foresee that coffee exports for this new October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year shall increase by 13% to approximately 8.15 million bags.

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 32.81 usc/Lb., while this equates to 31.93% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange registered an increase by 1,100 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,452,531 bags. There was an decrease of 8,091 bags in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange, to register these pending grading stocks at 51,329 bags.

It was a mixed day in the commodity markets yesterday, U.S. and China resumed trade discussions and boost positive sentiment, the Oil markets bubbled upward along with a softer US Dollar against other major currencies on the day. It was a positive day for Oil, Sugar, Cotton, arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Soybean, Gold, and Platinum markets, although it was a softer finish for Wheat, Corn, Copper, Silver and Palladium markets. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.562% higher; to see this index registered at 399.80. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.2761 to Sterling, at 1.144 to the Euro and the US Dollar buying 3.735 Brazilian Real, while North Sea Oil is steady at US$ 56.07 per Barrel.

The coffee markets opened the day yesterday in mildly positive territory, volumes light and limited in range through much of the morning session. It was overall a comparatively muted day on the coffee markets, which by mid-afternoon London time and mid-morning in New York, were relatively unchanged to be treading just north of par in New York and around par in London. The later day incrementally positive mood across the commodities sector spilled into the New York arabica market to provide support to the otherwise drifting session, to provide late in the day upward momentum, with London finishing the day around unchanged and just below par, New York set the close on day, near to the highs, after a relatively modest volume day in both markets, to set the close as follows:

London Robusta US$/MT New York Arabica Usc/Lb.

JAN    1,524 - 1                MAR 102.75 + 1.15
MAR  1,542 - 3                MAY 105.75 + 1.10
MAY  1,560 - 2                JULY 108.55 + 1.05
JULY  1,575 - 3                SEPT 111.30 + 1.00
SEPT  1,592 - 3               DEC 115.20 + 1.05
NOV  1,610 - 3                MAR 118.90 + 1.05
JAN   1,628 - 3                MAY 121.30 + 1.00
MAR  1,649 - 3               JULY 123.60 + 1.00
MAY  1,671 - 3               SEPT 125.75 + 0.90
JULY 1,688 - 3               DEC 128.85 + 0.80