I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
Logo

 

I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

30 Sep 2019
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 1.88% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. September; to register a new short sold position of 42,848 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 12,147,218 bags has most likely been marginally decreased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within the market by 1.71% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. September; to register a short-sold position of 46,545 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 7,757,500 bags has most likely been marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed

The General Statistics office in Vietnam have estimated that the countries coffee exports for the month of September shall be approximately 1.67 million bags, which they say shall contribute to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of this year to be 12% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 21.16 million bags.

Illustrating the problems producers are facing from the prevailing soft reference prices of the coffee terminal markets, the report notes that while the volume of exports for the first nine months of this year was 12% lower than the same period last year, they say that the value of these exports was a more extreme 20.7% lower than the value of the coffee exports for the same period last year.

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 40.98 usc/Lb. This equates to 40.61% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 6,564 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,277,278 bags. There was a smaller in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 4,079 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 33,579 bags.

The commodity markets were mostly softer in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, the Sugar market remained unchanged on Friday, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.015% lower; to see this index registered at 394.72. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.230 to Sterling, at 1.094 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.160 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading around par and taking a steady track, into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both markets started to attract some value and show some buoyancy, but to tail off and end the day close to par.

The London market ended the day on a steady note, but with only 77.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise steady note and with 4.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close provides little in the way of direction and is likely to set the markets for a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

NOV 1321 + 7                                                       DEC 100.90 + 0.05
JAN 1341 + 9                                                        MAR 104.45 + 0.10
MAR 1366 + 8                                                      MAY 106.70 + 0.10
MAY 1391 + 7                                                      JUL 108.80 + 0.15
JUL 1417 + 7                                                        SEP 110.65 + 0.10
SEP 1443 + 7                                                        DEC 113.40 + 0.05
NOV 1469 + 7                                                      MAR 116.20 + 0.05
JAN 1495 + 7                                                        MAY 118.05 Unch
MAR 1519 + 7                                                      JUL 119.90 + 0.05