I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915


I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

29 Nov 2019

The General Statistics office in Vietnam have estimated that the countries coffee exports for the month of November shall be approximately 2 million bags, which they say shall contribute to the countries cumulative exports for the first eleven months of this year to be 14.6% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 24.55 million bags.

Illustrating the problems producers are facing from the prevailing soft reference prices of the coffee terminal markets, the report notes that while the volume of exports for the first eleven months of this year was 14.6% lower than the same period last year, they say that the value of these exports was a more extreme 20.4% lower than the value of the coffee exports for the same period last year.

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 54.89 usc/Lb. This equates to 46.79% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,487 bags on Wednesday; to register these stocks at 2,146,435 bags, with 87.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,878,405 bags and the remaining 12.5% being held in the USA at a total of 268,030 bags. There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 6,135 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,788 bags.

The commodity markets lacked the participation of the US markets yesterday, as the country celebrated their Thanksgiving public holiday. The Natural Gas, Sugar, Orange Juice and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.5801% higher; to see this index registered at 403.3900. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.291 to Sterling, at 1.101 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.189 Brazilian Real.

The London market trading solo opened the day yesterday marginally south of par and in thin and lacklustre trade, maintained this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the market came under pressure and moved deeper into negative territory but managed to bounce off the lows and limit its losses in late trade.

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note, and with 35.71% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close was related to thin trade and provides little indication for direction, but with the Brazil Real showing some degree of buoyancy, one would think that it shall impact upon sentiment and set the markets for little better than a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JAN 1376 – 5                                                               DEC 117.30 + 1.60
MAR 1398 – 4                                                              MAR 118.45 + 1.60
MAY 1412 – 3                                                              MAY 120.75 + 1.60
JUL 1429 – 4                                                                JUL 122.65 + 1.55
SEP 1447 – 4                                                                SEP 124.30 + 1.50
NOV 1469 – 3                                                              DEC 126.45 + 1.45
JAN 1491 – 3                                                                MAR 128.70 + 1.40
MAR 1515 – 3                                                              MAY 130.25 + 1.35
MAY 1538 – 3                                                              JUL 131.85 + 1.35