The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net short position within the market by 5.43% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. July: to register a new net short sold position of 23,843 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,759,385 bags. This net short position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net short sold position within the market by 1.39% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. July; to register a short-sold position of 44,509 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 7,418,167 bags and has most likely been further increased following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The analysts Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 56% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested. This based on the Safras & Mercado forecast for a new crop of 68 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 38 million bags of the new crop have been harvested. These coffees made up from approximately 15 million bags of conilon robusta coffees and approximately, 23 million bags of arabica coffees.

The Brazil harvest this year is at a slower pace, compared to the same week in 2019 when approximately 68% of the crop was harvested, although the size of this biennial bearing larger crop can be attributed to the slower harvest time this year. This week shall see the global coffee market players keeping a close eye upon the cold but not freezing weather that is forecast to hit the main arabica coffee districts of South East Brazil. Albeit that most forecasters while acknowledging the advancing cold front, speculate that it is unlikely to bring freezing temperatures or substantial levels of rain to most of the coffee farms.

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of June are down by 2% from the previous month, to total 2,128,333 bags. This number proving to be slightly below the 2.33 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports. The report also states that for the first six months of 2020, Vietnam coffee exports are 2.2% higher than the same period last year at a total of 15,684,283 bags.

The September to September contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 43.10 usc/Lb. This equates to 44.25% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 14,543 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 1,620,980 bags, with 93.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,509,366 bags and the remaining 6.9% being held in the USA at a total of 111,614 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 1,225 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 24,808 bags.

It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa market ended the day on a positive note, The London Robusta market was unchanged on the day, while the Sugar and New York Arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1555% higher; to see this index registered at 373.3339. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.266 to Sterling, at 1.133 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.324 Brazilian Real.

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading erratically around par, with the markets taking a relatively steady track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London market started to show some degree of buoyancy and followed by the New York market, to see both markets taking on a modest positive track for late trade, but with the New York market coming under pressure to limit the gains of the day, the New York market fell from the highs of the day to settle on a negative note for the day, while the London market remained steady to the close on a neutral note.

The London market ended the day on unchanged, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note and with 64.29% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close does little to indicate direction and one might think the markets are due for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                           NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1197 Unch                                                                       SEP 97.40 – 1.35
NOV 1215 Unch                                                                     DEC 100.05 – 1.30
JAN 1228 – 2                                                                          MAR 102.20 – 1.35
MAR 1242 – 4                                                                        MAY 103.55 – 1.35
MAY 1256 – 7                                                                        JUL 104.85 – 1.40
JUL 1270 – 9                                                                          SEP 106.10 – 1.40
SEP 1281 – 10                                                                        DEC 107.85 – 1.30
NOV 1296 – 10                                                                      MAR 109.65 – 1.20