Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 23.64%, to register a net short position of 36,106 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 10,235,891 bags has most likely been since decreased, following the mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the net short sold position of the Managed Money Funds.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 109.2% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. November; to register a net short sold position of 12,533 Lots on the day. This net short sold position that is the equivalent of 2,088,883 bags has most likely been marginally reduced over the period of mixed but overall little changed trade, which has since followed.

The National Export Centre in Nicaragua have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of October were 2,170 bags or 5.46% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 37,605 bags. These exports are however mostly related to past crop carryover stocks and have no bearing on the prospects of the new crop that is only now starting to be harvested, with early forecasts looking to a matching to perhaps marginally higher new crop due for the country.

The well-respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have revised higher by 2.45% their earlier forecast for the new Vietnam coffee crop, which they now foresee to be 29.3 million bags. This new crop that they appropriate to a new robusta coffee crop of 28.2 million bags and a new arabica coffee crop of 1.1 million bags, they say is over and above and estimated 5.83 million bags of carryover stocks into the new crop, which inflates coffee supply for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year to a significantly high 35.13 million bags.

The report also indicates that domestic consumption within Vietnam shall increase to perhaps as high as 2.6 million bags in the coming year, but even with this aside the coffee supply shall remain at a high 32.53 million bags. With the report suggesting that this shall result in Vietnam having the insurance against possible weather related problems in the coming year, of a carryover stock of in excess of 4 million bags into the next October 2016 to March 2017 harvest.

The latest weather reports out of Brazil are confirming good rains for the majority of the main coffee districts, which shall assist to build up ground water retention levels and to support the many forecasts for a much larger new coffee crop for the coming year, with many of these forecasts talking a number of close to and even in excess of 60 million bags. Thus for the present the longer term Brazil coffee supply is not a supportive factor for the market, albeit for the short term and following the modest new crop this year, the coffee internal market coffee supply remains relatively tight and especially so, for the now relatively expensive bolder bean screen 17/18 arabica coffees, which have contributed to a much lower percentage than usual of the recently harvested new crop.

The second month arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 52.64 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 42.99% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact in more volume upon the fortunes of the London market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 695 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,848,906 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 7,360 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 10,817 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to decrease by 166 bags on Friday 20th. November; to see these stocks registered at 3,352,667 bags on the day.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, but with the overall macro commodity index and despite the negative aspects of the strong U.S. dollar showing a degree of buoyancy for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.07% higher to see this Index registered at 383.61. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady in early trade and trading at 1.513 to Sterling and 1.063 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at 43.45 per barrel.

The London and New York markets opened the day yesterday with modest losses, following the positive end to the previous week. Trade remained thin and lacklustre into the afternoon, but with both markets continuing on a downside track and extending their losses for early afternoon trade. The New York and London markets and with perhaps some added negative pressure from increased volumes of producer price fixation selling as against thin consumer industry buying activity extended their losses as the afternoon progressed, but with the bears seemingly running out of steam later in the day within the New York market which bounced back from its lows late in the day’s trade. The London market continued to end the day on a soft note and with 86.8% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a soft note, but with only 56.5% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The partial late in the day recovery for the more volatile New York market and with the charts for this market remaining modestly positive, might well assist to inspire a cautious steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

NOV 1506 – 33                                             DEC    119.95 – 1.95
JAN 1539 – 33                                             MAR    122.45 – 1.95
MAR 1566 – 34                                           MAY    124.65 – 1.90
MAY 1590 – 33                                             JUL    126.75 – 1.90
JUL 1611 – 33                                               SEP    128.60 – 1.90
SEP 1632 – 32                                              DEC    131.50 – 1.85
NOV 1651 – 32                                            MAR   134.35 – 1.75
JAN 1670 – 32                                             MAY   136.25 – 1.70
MAR 1688 – 32                                             JUL    138.05 – 1.65
MAY 1712 – 32                                             SEP    139.80 – 1.55