This relatively marginal rise in cumulative exports for this new coffee year from Honduras does not however reflect any problems for the countries new crop, which has been delayed a little this year but is still being forecasted by the coffee authorities and local trade in Honduras to be a larger new crop of something in the region of 5.8 million bags. This larger new crop to potentially fuel a 10% increase in export volumes for this new coffee year, which the countries National Coffee Institute forecast shall exceed 5.2 million bags.

The Coffee Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of December was 368,000 bags or 33.89% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 1,454,000 bags. This improved performance has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first three months of this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year to being 842,000 bags or 25.5% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,144,000 bags.

In terms of exports, the Coffee Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 135,000 bags or 12.78% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 1,191,000 bags. This improved performance has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first three months of this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year to being 418,000 bags or 13.73% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,462,000 bags.

Thus in terms of the 2015 Calendar year Colombia has now reported a coffee harvest of 14,175,000 bags, which well exceeds the official forecasts for a 2015 crop of between 13.5 million and 13.6 million bags and with the 2015 crop having been the country’s largest crop for 23 years. However with the drier weather that is being experienced with the prevailing El Nino phenomenon that is presently in play and its negative effect upon the flowering for the next mid-year Mitaca crop, one might suggest that Colombian coffee production for this year might struggle to match the impressive 2015 production level. Thus it might perhaps be safer to talk in terms of approximately 13 million bags for 2016. But nevertheless a crop that combined with increased fine washed arabica coffee supply due from Mexico, Central America and Peru, which shall be sufficient to satisfy consumer market demand for these quality coffees, for the medium to longer term.

The March on March contracts arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 52.27 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 43.58% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact in more volume upon the fortunes of the London market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 15,437 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,707,072 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in volume 275 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 38,616 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London market were seen to decline by 11,833 bags on Monday 4th. January; to see these stocks registered at 3,262,833 bags.

The commodity markets were on something of a back foot in trade yesterday, with the prevailing economic woes of China contributing to bearish sentiment for both commodities and equities for the day and with the Oil markets proving to be a significant loser for the day. The Wheat, Soybean and Gold markets nevertheless bucked the negative influences of the softening overall macro commodity index and the Silver market was steady for the day, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Corn and Platinum markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.93% lower to see this Index registered at 373.26. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar marginally softer in early trade and trading at 1.463 to Sterling and 1.082 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is tending softer in early trade and is selling at 32.50 per barrel.

The London and New York markets started the day on a near to steady note, but with both markets soon coming under pressure and entering the afternoon on a softer track, which with the added negative influences of the softening nature of the overall macro commodity index, soon attracted added selling pressure for the more volatile New York market. Both markets added to their losses but stabilised at the lows, to take a sideways track for the rest of the day’s trade. The London market continued to end the day on a soft note and with 93.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a soft note and with 87.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close and with the charts tending negative does little to inspire and one might not expect much better than a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT               NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JAN 1451 – 14                                           MAR 119.95 – 3.05
MAR 1492 – 15                                         MAY 122.10 – 3.00
MAY 1522 – 15                                           JUL 124.10 – 3.00
JUL 1549 – 15                                              SEP 125.80 – 2.95
SEP 1572 – 15                                             DEC 128.15 – 3.05
NOV 1593 – 15                                          MAR 130.40 – 3.10
JAN 1610 – 15                                           MAY 131.90 – 3.05
MAR 1629 – 15                                            JUL 133.25 – 3.00
MAY 1651 – 15                                            SEP 134.35 – 3.00
JUL 1676 – 15                                             DEC 135.75 – 2.80