I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

07 Apr 2016
The Coffee Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of March was 144,000 bags or 18% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 944,000 bags. This improved performance has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first six months of this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year to being 1,101,000 bags or 17.7% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 7,320,000 bags.

In terms of exports, the Coffee Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 308,000 bags or 39.9% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 1,080,000 bags. This improved performance has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first six months of this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year to being 803,000 bags or 13.49% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,756,000 bags.

This rise in production within Colombia for this present coffee year is even more impressive in terms of the 17% increase in production for the past 12 months as compared to the previous 12 months, with the production from April 2015 to March 2016 recorded at 14,430,000 bags. However with the drier weather that has being experienced over the past six months that has been caused by the now on the wane El Nino phenomenon and the poor flowering for the forthcoming Mitaca crop, production volumes are expected to start falling of this new crop.

In this respect there are already forecasts that for the period April 2016 through to March 2017 that Colombian production might fall back to something in the order of a more modest 13.3 million bags, which would still be a respectable crop and one that inspires confidence within the consumer markets, to use fine washed Colombian coffees as a secure base for the higher quality blends. The only matter of concern is though the speculation that there might be a new La Nina phenomenon developing for the last quarter of this year which if it were to be intense, would bring with it damaging excessive rains and conditions which would increase the incidence of Roya or Leaf Rust, which would likely reduce the Colombian crop prospects for the coming year.

The July on July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 55.52 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 44.9% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, with the good discount most likely due to remain in place for the foreseeable future, in line with steady robusta shipments out of Vietnam.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,095 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,416,212 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 5,847 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 17,312 bags.

The commodity markets were generally steady to buoyant in nature yesterday and assisted by a softening U.S. dollar; with the Oil markets further reacting positively to the news that there might after all be some sort of OPEC production limits agreement on the cards. Thus the overall macro commodity index that has been falling of late experienced day of modest buoyancy. The Oil, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Corn and Soybean markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Natural Gas, Cotton, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade but only modestly so, with the exception of the Natural Gas market. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.49% higher; to see this Index registered at 379.42. The day starts with a softer U.S. Dollar which is trading at 1.415 to Sterling and 1.142 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing a degree of buoyancy in early trade and is selling at 38.50 per barrel.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday with a degree of buoyancy, but with the New York market soon coming under pressure, while the London market retained its buoyancy into the afternoon trade. The New York market came under further pressure as in early afternoon trade and extended its losses, but with the London market resisting the negative influences of the softer New York market. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market and with the positive influence of the overall macro commodity index in play bounced off its lows and triggered buy stops to move through par and into positive territory and with the London market likewise showing some more buoyancy. The London market continued to end the day on a positive note and with 80% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a positive note, but with only 52.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The recovery for the New York market is however so far not very convincing and has done little to counter the negative nature of the charts for this market, but one might nevertheless and with a softer U.S. dollar in play, expect to see a relatively steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT           NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY 1470 + 13                                    MAY 121.50 + 0.60
JUL 1502 + 12                                         JUL 123.65 + 0.60
SEP 1525 + 12                                         SEP 125.40 + 0.55
NOV 1544 + 14                                      DEC 127.35 + 0.45
JAN 1562 + 16                                      MAR 129.25 + 0.45
MAR 1581 + 16                                    MAY 131.00 + 0.50
MAY 1604 + 16                                      JUL 132.30 + 0.55
JUL 1627 + 16                                         SEP 133.10 + 0.50
SEP 1647 + 16                                        DEC 134.35 + 0.50
DEC 1667 + 16                                      MAR 135.80 + 0.50