Meanwhile the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 22.28% over the same week; to register a net short sold position of 29,014 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 8,225,340 bags has most likely been reduced again, over the period mostly short covering positive trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money fund sector of the market.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 25.18% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th. July; to register a net long of 7,060 Lots on the day. This net long that is the equivalent of 1,176,667 bags has most likely been little changed, over the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

With the month of July passed the National Coffee Institute of Honduras has reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month were 29,481 bags or 8.6% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 313,337 bags. This lower performance does not however detract from the fact that up to June the coffee exports have been surging out of Honduras and therefore, the cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year are approximately 862,615 bags or 21.64% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of approximately 4,849,345. We note the comment approximately, as there would appear to have been some adjustments made to the volumes of some of the earlier monthly export reports.

One might note in terms of these impressive figures from Honduras that with still two months to go, the export performance has already matched the earlier export forecasts for the present coffee year. However following the earlier surge in exports the country is seen to be largely sold out and aside from some forward sold stocks still to be shipped, one might not expect to see significant volumes coming to the consumer markets over the next two months. Thus, with the new crop coffees only due to come to the market in any degree of volume only in December, a slow export performance foreseen for Honduras for the next four months.

The preliminary coffee export figures for the month of July from Brazil have been announced and with the coffee exports for the month seen to have been 270,292 bags or 9.76% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,499,095 bags. But this dip which follows relatively good volumes of coffee exports from Brazil for the first six months of this year is to have been expected as the exporters have been experiencing rising internal market price resistance over the past couple of months, which has been becoming even more noticeable despite the new crop that is now coming in, which is forcing exporters to demand ever increasing price differentials for new arabica coffee business, which is tending to stall all but the must have new business from the consumer markets for the present.

The arbitrage between the markets broadened yesterday to register this at 53.55 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 41.33% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact upon the fortunes of the London market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 275 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,102,685 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 4,720 bags decline to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,680 bags.

The commodity markets came under pressure yesterday and with further disappointing economic data reports from China, tending to dampen speculative spirits within most markets. The Natural Gas and Orange Juice markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.60% lower to see this Index registered at 398,43. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and selling at 1.561 to Sterling and 1.096 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at 49.30 per barrel.

The London and New York markets opened the day yesterday on a near to steady note but tending to remain south of par, with the markets coming under some pressure to experience additional losses into the afternoon trade. There was however some stability within the markets through the first half of the afternoon and the ability to bounce back from the short term sell off, but with the negative influences of the soft overall macro commodity index in play and only thin consumer buying activity, there was not sufficient support for a full recovery. Thus the markets tended to falter in later trade; to see both markets slip back and end the day on a relatively soft note. The London market ended the day with 66.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day with 38.6% of the earlier in the day’s losses intact. This close does little to inspire and one might note expect to see anything better than a cautious steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1625 – 13                                SEP   123.95 – 1.30
NOV 1645 – 10                              DEC  127.15 – 1.35
JAN 1662 – 9                                 MAR 130.65 – 1.35
MAR 1683 – 8                               MAY 132.80 – 1.35
MAY 1703 – 10                              JUL  134.90 – 1.35
JUL 1721 – 9                                  SEP   137.00 – 1.25
SEP 1741 – 7                                  DEC  140.00 – 1.25
NOV 1761 – 9                                MAR 142.85 – 1.20
JAN 1782 – 9                                 MAY 144.65 – 1.15
MAR 1797 – 9                                 JUL  146.40 – 1.15