The Green Coffee Association of the U.S.A. have announced that the countries port warehouse stocks increased by 61,187 bags or 1.02% during the month of May, to register these stocks at 6,084,188 bags at the end of the month. These stocks do not of course include the in transit bulk container coffees or the onsite roaster inventories, which with an approximate combined U.S.A. and Canadian weekly consumption that is fed by these stocks of 560,000 bags per week, would conservatively have been at least 1.1 million bags.

Therefore if one is to consider the additional unreported stocks and look to end April stocks in North America of approximately 7.2 million bags, it would have equated to something in the order of 13 weeks of roasting activity. This number remains a safe reserve, in terms of the steady flow of new crop coffees from Colombia, Central America and Vietnam that are already coming to the market and soon to be followed, by the new crop coffees from Brazil.

The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 65.44 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 46.71% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, continues to inspire support for the robusta coffee sector of the industry.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,550 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,317,657 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 4,876 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 14,878 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed but with many markets tending to falter with the U.S. dollar losing a little of its muscle ahead of the outcome of the meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve bank, which finally left the interest rate unchanged. The overall macro commodity index took a marginally softer track for the day, despite the good gains noted for the Sugar, New York arabica Coffee and Copper markets. The Sugar, Cocoa, Copper and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy and the London robusta Coffee and Gold markets were near to steady, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.17% lower; to see this Index registered at 428.81. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar taking a near to steady track and trading at 1.417 to Sterling and 1.128 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is near to steady in early trade and trading at 46.45 per barrel.

The London market started the day on a softer note, while the New York market had a steady start and soon moved up into positive territory and to see the London market recover and move back to par in early afternoon trade, while the New York market added to its gains. Both markets and with seemingly fair volumes of industry buying in play moved higher, but with the London market tending to falter and move back towards par, while the New York market retained sufficient support to maintain a positive track for the rest of the day’s trade. The London market ended the day on a near to steady note and having recovered 70.6% of the earlier losses of the day by the close, while the New York market ended the day on a very positive note and with 88.4% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the New York charts looking positive is likely to inspire a degree of confidence and one might expect to see a steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JUL 1611 – 7                                        JUL 138.20 + 3.10
SEP 1646 – 5                                        SEP 140.10 + 3.05
NOV 1664 – 5                                      DEC 142.70 + 2.95
JAN 1678 – 4                                      MAR 145.15 + 2.85
MAR 1695 – 1                                    MAY 146.45 + 2.85
MAY 1712 – 1                                      JUL 147.80 + 2.85
JUL 1730 – 1                                         SEP 149.10 + 2.75
SEP 1744 – 1                                        DEC 150.70 + 2.55
DEC 1763 – 1                                      MAR 152.05 + 2.40
MAR 1759 – 1                                     MAY 152.85 + 2.40