However if one is to consider that the stocks do not include bulk container transit coffees, roaster on site inventories and private stocks held in non-declared warehouses and thus one might look to add at the very least 2 million bags and possibly as much as 3 million bags to the number above. This would indicate that the overall coffee stocks within Europe as at the end of June would have been close to 14 million bags to 14.5 million bags as at the end of July and sufficient in number, to fuel a very safe in excess of 14 weeks of roasting demand. A factor that would have also contributed to the bearish nature of the coffee markets, over the past couple of months.

One has to comment that this rise in European coffee stocks which is matched by rising stocks within the North American market, is despite the price resistance within the internal market in Vietnam and to a lesser degree within the internal market in Brazil, which has resulted in diminished export numbers out of Vietnam and relatively flat export numbers out of Brazil. This puts into question with the new and larger crop soon due to start being harvested in Vietnam and with the internal market stocks in Vietnam at a record high for this time of the year, what shall be the impact upon European stock levels should large volumes of Vietnam robusta coffee stocks start to come to the Certified stocks of the London market so as to find a home for these excess in demand coffees.

The new main coffee harvest in Colombia is soon to start picking up in volume but reports are coming forth of problems for the commercial coffee farmers in terms of labour, with the indication that some farmers have to struggle with an approximate 30% shortage of the required labour needed to carefully pick only the selected ripe cherries. This indicating that the pressure to harvest might well result in many of the larger commercial farmers might have to consider partial strip harvesting and pick higher percentages of immature cherries, which would have some impact upon the overall quality of the new crop coffees. This aside thought, the country is nevertheless forecasted that so far as there are no negative weather issues coming to the fore, to produce more coffee for the coming year and with the Colombian Coffee Federation already talking in terms of 13.7 million bags.

While green coffee exports from India have been flat so far this year with internal market price resistance impacting upon the competiveness of these coffees within the consumer markets, the exports of value added soluble coffees from India are seemingly surging. In this respect the country reports that exports of soluble coffee for the first nine and half months of this year have increased by 22% over the same period last year, but with a high percentage of relatively inexpensive robusta coffees having been imported by the countries soluble coffee factories to remain competitive within the consumer markets.

The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 46.39 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 39.28% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact upon the fortunes of the London market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 6,133 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,038,937 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in volume 1,778 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 46,609 bags.

The commodity markets and lead by a rally in the Oil markets had an overall day of hesitant buoyancy for most markets yesterday, with perhaps the news of extremely low inflation within the U.S.A. which might delay a decision for and interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve Bank, assisting to inspire some degree of confidence. The Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, London robusta Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Natural Gas, New York arabica Coffee, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.49% higher to see this Index registered at 396.89. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.550 to Sterling and 1.129 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing buoyancy in early trade and is selling at 49.25 per barrel.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday with hesitant buoyancy, but within an environment of extremely thin trade and to enter the afternoon on this steady track. The New York market did however come under pressure early in the afternoon and took a short lived dip prior to posting a recovery and with the London market trading around par and followed as the afternoon progressed by another dip for the New York market and a follow on recovery for both markets. Trade remained thin and lacklustre for both markets and while the New York market once again slipped back into negative territory, the London market maintained its modest buoyancy. The London market continued to end the day with modest buoyancy and with 35.7% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modestly softer note and with 46.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This uncertain close is likely to bring hesitancy to market players and possibly a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT         NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1579 + 5                                       SEP     113.80 – 1.70
NOV 1581 + 5                                     DEC    118.10 – 0.60
JAN 1594 + 5                                      MAR   121.50 – 0.55
MAR 1610 + 5                                    MAY   123.75 – 0.55
MAY 1631 + 6                                      JUL   125.70 – 0.55
JUL 1651 + 7                                        SEP    127.70 – 0.45
SEP 1671 + 7                                        DEC   130.45 – 0.40
NOV 1691 + 7                                      MAR  133.10 – 0.40
JAN 1711 + 7                                       MAY  134.90 – 0.45
MAR 1733 + 7                                       JUL  136.70 – 0.50